Earnings
How to Read an Earnings Report (and Why Stocks Fall on Good News)
Four times a year, every public company reports its results. The stock's biggest moves usually happen in the hours after. Here's how to read the report like the people moving the price.
What arrives on earnings day
Most companies release results in three pieces:
- The press release, usually before the market opens or after it closes, with headline numbers, tables and often guidance. It is typically furnished to the SEC on a Form 8-K.
- The earnings call, a conference call (often webcast) where executives discuss results and answer analysts' questions.
- The Form 10-Q (or 10-K for the year), the full filing with complete financial statements and notes, sometimes filed days or weeks later. See Reading a 10-K and 10-Q.
The headline numbers
Revenue (also "sales" or "the top line") is everything the company brought in. Look at growth compared with the same quarter last year, not the previous quarter, because many businesses are seasonal.
Earnings per share (EPS) is net income divided by shares outstanding. You'll usually see two versions:
- GAAP EPS, calculated under standard accounting rules.
- Adjusted or non-GAAP EPS, which excludes items management considers one-time or non-cash.
Companies that report non-GAAP figures must show a reconciliation to GAAP. Read it. If the "one-time" adjustments show up every quarter, they aren't one-time.
Beat, meet or miss
Before each report, analysts publish estimates, and their average is called the consensus. The share price already reflects that expectation. So the market reacts to the difference between results and expectations, not to the results alone.
Example. Consensus expects EPS of $2.00 on revenue of $10.0 billion. The company reports $2.08 on $10.1 billion: a beat on both. But it guides next quarter's EPS to $1.90 when analysts expected $2.10. The stock falls 8% the next morning. Investors care more about the next twelve months than the last three.
Guidance: the forecast that moves stocks
Many companies give guidance, their own forecast for revenue, earnings or margins in the coming quarter or year. Changes in guidance often move the stock more than the quarter itself. Watch for:
- Raised, maintained or lowered full-year guidance.
- Where the new range sits compared with consensus.
- Whether guidance was withdrawn entirely, which usually signals uncertainty.
Below the headline
- Margins. Gross margin and operating margin show whether the company is keeping more or less of each sales dollar. Shrinking margins can hide behind rising revenue.
- Segments. Larger companies break results into business lines or regions. A weak segment can matter more than the total.
- Cash flow. Compare cash from operations with net income. Profit that never turns into cash deserves questions.
- Balance sheet. Check cash and debt. Did debt jump this quarter? Why?
- Share count. Is EPS rising because profits grew or because shares were bought back? See Shares and dilution.
Listening to the call
The prepared remarks are polished. The question-and-answer section is where you learn the most. Listen for questions management avoids, numbers they decline to give, and changes in tone from previous calls. Transcripts are often available from the company or from financial news services.
An earnings-day routine
- Write down the consensus estimates and the company's prior guidance before the release.
- Read the press release headline numbers and guidance first.
- Check the GAAP-to-adjusted reconciliation.
- Look at margins, cash flow and the share count.
- Read or listen to the Q&A.
- Ask: did anything change about the long-term story? A single quarter rarely does.
What to check in the press release, the 10-Q and the call. (PDF)
Common questions
What does it mean when a company beats earnings?
It means reported earnings per share (and often revenue) came in above the average of analysts' published estimates, often called the consensus.
What is the difference between GAAP and adjusted earnings?
GAAP earnings follow standard accounting rules. Adjusted (non-GAAP) earnings exclude items management considers unusual, such as restructuring costs or stock-based compensation. Companies must reconcile the two, and the gap is worth examining.
Where can I find a company's earnings report?
On the investor relations section of the company's website and on the SEC's EDGAR system, where the earnings press release is typically furnished on a Form 8-K and the full quarterly report is filed on Form 10-Q.